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The Pattern No One Talks About
Years ago, I noticed something unsettling. Every January, my LinkedIn feed would flood with "open to work" banners. Then again in late summer. At first, I thought it was coincidence. It wasn't.
How did we become so conditioned to believe layoffs are about our performance that we never stopped to ask: Why do they always happen at the same times of year?
The Uncomfortable Truth About "Performance-Based" Layoffs
Companies want you to think layoffs are about performance. They're not. They're about revenue cycles, budget planning, and fiscal year positioning.
Here's why this matters for your professional independence: These decisions are made in boardrooms months before your manager delivers the news. They're driven by financial calendars, not performance calendars.
When companies say "this was a difficult decision based on performance," they're giving you the sanitized version. The real version? "This was a strategic decision based on our revenue cycle, and we needed to execute it during our planned window." When they say "performance-based layoff," what you should hear is "performance of the executive team"—and no one else's.
One note before we dive into the patterns: many companies operate on a fiscal year that doesn't align with the calendar year. When you look at aggregate layoff data across all companies, this can skew or flatten the peaks. Don't let that confuse you. On an individual company basis, these organizations follow the same patterns—layoffs cluster around their reporting windows, board meetings, and budget cycles. The calendar dates I'm sharing reflect the majority of companies that operate on a traditional January-December fiscal year.
Understanding this doesn't make it hurt less. But it removes the personal narrative that keeps professionals stuck—and stuck professionals can't build independence.
The Three Layoff Seasons Every Professional Must Know
Once you see the pattern, you can't unsee it. There are three primary layoff periods every corporate year:
H1 Peak: January/February
The biggest wave hits right after the holiday parties end. Fresh budgets. New forecasts. Board pressure to "optimize headcount" for the year ahead. Companies are making cuts based on last year's numbers and this year's projections. Your individual performance? That's secondary to the spreadsheet.
Q1 Recalibration: April
The smaller wave that catches people off guard. By April, companies have their first real revenue data of the year. Numbers soft? Time to adjust. Numbers strong? They might still cut to boost margins for shareholders. It's financial optimization disguised as workforce management. And instead of going back to the board and admitting their forecasts were wrong, a "performance-based adjustment" occurs—and you're out.
H2 Peak: July/August
The second major wave arrives mid-year. Companies are positioning for the back half of their fiscal year. New priorities, strategic pivots, margin optimization. Same playbook. Different quarter. By now, the end of year story executives want to tell the board, investors, and shareholders (if it's a publicly traded company) is already being crafted, based on H1 results and H2 projections. Layoffs are just part of making the spreadsheets support the narrative that needs to be told for good PR.
The insight that changes everything: Knowing the calendar gives you the power to prepare rather than react. This is the foundation of Strategic Independence—the ability to make proactive career moves instead of being caught off guard by forces you never saw coming.
What Changed When I Stopped Taking It Personally
Before I understood professional independence, I spent two years after a layoff believing it was about me. I genuinely believed it was all me. I replayed every performance review, questioned every project decision, wondered what I could have done differently.
And that's no accident. The language leaders use during layoffs is designed to make employees believe they're part of the problem. "Performance-based reduction." "Right-sizing the team." "Aligning talent to business needs." Every phrase places the weight on your shoulders.
What I hadn't yet learned was what we discussed earlier: "performance-based layoffs" means executive performance—not the performance of "the business" (a non-human entity), the performance of the people responsible for the business results. Definitely not yours.
When I finally looked at the data, the truth was obvious: I was one of hundreds of people cut in February to meet Q1 targets. My performance rating had been "exceeds expectations."
That realization was the 10% struggle. The 90% learning? I started building my professional identity independent of any employer. I started preparing during the calm seasons instead of scrambling during the storms.
Your Independence-Building Actions
This Week:
- Mark the three layoff seasons on your calendar for the coming year
- Assess which season you're currently in or approaching
- Update your LinkedIn profile and resume as a proactive step, not a reactive one
This Month:
- Identify one skill or certification that makes you more portable across companies
- Start networking with peers outside of your company—former colleagues, people in similar roles, all of them. Get networking and increase your visibility.
- Put some money aside—delay a big purchase, sell those dust-collecting things in your garage (it's something you should do anyway).
Reflection Question: If your company announced layoffs next month, what would you wish you had done today?
Want To Learn More? Join Us December 17th
Want to dive deeper into layoff readiness strategies? I'm hosting a free Layoff Readiness Webinar on December 17th where we'll cover not just the timing patterns, but the specific steps you can take now to build professional resilience.
Register here: Layoff Readiness Webinar
When You're Ready to Build Professional Independence
- Free Layoff Readiness Webinar (Dec 17): Learn the complete layoff calendar and what to do about it: Register here: Layoff Readiness Webinar
- Layoff Recovery - The First 7 Days: Our comprehensive guide covering what you need to do in the first 7 days after a layoff: Download here
Forward this to someone who needs to see the pattern before the next layoff season hits.
Nathan Pearce
Creator of The Professional Independence Academy
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